forces of nature
Not to sound like a complete geek, but I have been busy finalising the topic of my dissertation to take place over the summer. I am very - no, extremely - excited about it.In addition it will be completed in conjunction with a research team based at the university where I completed my undergraduate degree when I first arrived in the UK. The project more or less fell into my hands and I have been extremely fortunate and blessed in obtaining it. I have a feeling that along with whatever forces of nature are out there, this dissertation will help lead me to places that I want to go in the very near future (fingers crossed).
In a nutshell, hurricanes rank as the US’s costliest natural disaster, with damages estimated to be US$8.0bn in economic losses and US$4.2bn in insured losses at 2005 prices and exposures. The project will focus on the modelling and prediction of US hurricane insured losses in two regions - the East Coast and the Gulf Coast, with a view to assisting insurers and reinsurers in providing information about the reinsurance required in order to adequately protect their businesses from losses resulting from hurricane disasters in a particular year.
I will be:
1. Creating an insured loss time series from analysis of published work for US East Coast and US Gulf Coast hurricane strikes from 1900-2005.
2. Investigating the cumulative probability distribution of each of the above, as well as determining the suitability of various distributions (such as the lognormal, generalised Pareto etc) which might provide the best representation for the above data, and establishing return periods for losses of a given level to assess where 2004 and 2005 lie.
3. Predicting the seasonality of US East Coast and US Gulf Coast hurricane strikes using atmospheric teleconnections including ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation wind patterns in July.
I'll stop there. Wouldn't want you all thinking that I'm more of a geek than you already think I am.
PS: New laptop (and parents, and boyfriend) arrive this weekend! Hurrah!
L'Esthete @ 15:37
